Current market trends indicate that a recession is likely to happen within the next two years, asserts Lawrence H. Summers of The Washington Post. From local factors like credit slowly becoming harder to get and investment waning, to foreign ones like the Chinese economy slowing and Europe mired in uncertainty, the US will be negatively affected. Meanwhile, protectionist ideals and high debt risk stifling much-needed growth. Unless there are major changes in economic policy, the US is more likely than not going to see an economic downturn. Problems in Europe and China will only multiply this pain.
While the stock market had to correct itself after excessive growth, calls of a recession on the horizon are overly pessimistic, infers Jon Hartley of Fox News. A stock market downturn doesn’t always herald such an outcome. Stock market sell-offs in 2011 and 2015 didn’t result in recessions. America’s top companies are more and more reliant on foreign markets. Growth slowing in places like China has meant that Apple, for example, had to revise sales expectations. Tight financial regulations also keep budgets balanced. In general, recessions are very hard to predict, as was the case in 2008.