The GOP’s majority in the Senate, which until not long ago was seen as secure, is no longer a guarantee come 2018’s midterms, infers Jessica Taylor of NPR. The current wave of Democratic enthusiasm is worrying Republicans, whose seat majority looks increasingly uncertain. The combination of low yields from GOP fundraisers and Democrats raising unexpected amounts is also indicative. Once-secure seats like the ones in Wisconsin or Tennessee are no longer guaranteed, while Ohio and Pennsylvania aren’t realistic targets for the GOP anymore. All factors indicate a blue wave coming in August.
While Democrats’ support is certainly growing, the Senate is most likely beyond their reach, argues Charlie Mahtesian of Politico. The GOP has a major advantage because of the Senate map. Democrats are defending 26 seats, compared to the Republicans’ 9. To undo the GOP’s advantage, they would need to succeed in parts of the country that are overwhelmingly white, rural, pro-gun and most importantly non-Democratic. Nebraska, Utah and Wyoming, for example, are unlikely to become blue. Even strong candidates like Beto O’Rourke in Texas are unlikely to defeat popular opponents like Ted Cruz. All in all, Democrats’ chances to win are small.