Special election successes over the past year have shown that Democratic turnout is seeing a huge rise. If it continues, the GOP might need to prepare for big losses in this year’s midterms, argues Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight. Democrats turning out in droves in Pennsylvania, Alabama and Georgia are breaking the trend of poor engagement in midterms, where Republicans have generally done better. Predictions from the generic Congressional ballot, which puts the GOP behind by around 8 or 9 percentage points, doesn’t reflect the average 16-17 point over-performance in special elections. Not just a wave, a blue tsunami is coming.
The notion that a blue Democratic wave is guaranteed to take over the midterms is highly outlandish, believes Edward Morrissey of The Week. Special elections do not reflect national ones. The district that Conor Lamb won in Pennsylvania will be redrawn come fall, meaning results could go very differently. Because special elections happen outside of voting season, both parties have much more to invest in them. On a national level, they need to be much more frugal. Conor Lamb’s views fall in line more with conservatives than liberals. His victory won’t necessarily be replicated by other Democrats. The GOP also has much more resources than them.