Democrats are far from guaranteed a victory in 2018, holds Jeff Greenfield of Politico. The much-used argument, that, on average, the ruling party loses 31 Congressional seats in the midterms, ignores the complexity of this process. Midterm elections need to be looked at on a case-by-case basis. For example, the huge losses Democrats suffered in 1938 were the result of a huge recession and political mistakes by president Roosevelt. Presidential popularity is not the sole deciding factor. Even though President Trump is divisive, Republican candidates are likely to do well in 2018, particularly on the state level.