Democrats are far from guaranteed a victory in 2018, holds Jeff Greenfield of Politico. The much-used argument, that, on average, the ruling party loses 31 Congressional seats in the midterms, ignores the complexity of this process. Midterm elections need to be looked at on a case-by-case basis. For example, the huge losses Democrats suffered in 1938 were the result of a huge recession and political mistakes by president Roosevelt. Presidential popularity is not the sole deciding factor. Even though President Trump is divisive, Republican candidates are likely to do well in 2018, particularly on the state level.
The shifting political landscape of the U.S, as well as trends from past midterms, indicate that Democrats are set to do well in 2018, assert Bill Glauber and others in USA Today. President Trump’s particularly divisive nature has alienated supporters and fired up the left-wing voter base. Strong new Democratic candidates are aiming for Republican-held seats, which are more fragile than they appear. Some are even being left vacant already. Many areas that Trump won in 2016 have potential to turn blue. People that voted for him are becoming more and more open to chose Democrats in the 2018 midterms.