The disappointing start to Joe Biden's presidency has created an opening for Donald Trump to return, suggests Ross Douthat in The Irish Times. Whether due to poor choices or bad luck, Biden's popularity is dangerously low. The mishandling of the Afghanistan pullout wasted any increase in popularity it might have provided. His oversight brought no end to the chaos at the border. Meanwhile, Trump's approval rating may be growing to match Biden's. The pandemic isn't helping, as it continues to cripple US society. All in all, Biden is looking old and weak, much more so than he did as vice president. Unless things change, Trump will have a solid shot at reelection.
Donald Trump is unlikely to repeat his 2016 rise to the presidency in 2024, proclaims Darragh Roche of Newsweek. His biggest selling point was being a complete outsider, a breath of fresh air. After four years in the White House, that aura is gone. He will need to provide something similarly new, which is unlikely, to generate the excitement of 2016. That election success also came in the face of several major missteps by Democrats, such as undervaluing the Midwest, which probably won't happen again. Many in the GOP see Trump's railing about voter fraud in 2020, which hasn't been proven, as a political liability. The party might need someone different in 2024.