The Republican party will likely come out on top in the 2018 midterms, claims Ronna McDaniel in The Hill. While some predict them losing, President Trump disproved most polls before when he won the election. Crucial is the GOP’s fundraising, which has given it a mighty war chest, far bigger than that of Democrats. Recent primary elections in Ohio, West Virginia and Indiana had record Republican turnouts. The GOP’s election infrastructure is ready for the campaigning and engagement with voters that midterms require. The popularity of Trump across the country, which is still as high as in 2016, is also a major factor.
Democrats’ results in special elections show a big surge in support that could land them a victory in the midterms, report Harry Enten and Sam Petulla of CNN. They have over-performed in 83 out of 114 elections since January. Even Republican victories, like the special election success in Arizona’s 8th congressional district, are worrying since they happened by much slimmer margins than expected. Democrats are witnessing an average growth in support of 13 percentage points across the board. Looking at historical examples, this swing in popularity is likely to gain them a Congressional majority in 2018.