All signs point towards the GOP losing its majority in Congress this year, infers Chris Cillizza of CNN. Several Republicans are retiring from their positions because they predict that they’d lose anyway. President Trump has pushed the party to the fringes, reducing the ability of individual Republicans to get things done, as compromises have been shunned. Furthermore, sitting presidents have historically done poorly during the midterms with an approval rating of less than 50%, averaging a loss of 50 seats. Trump’s approval rating sits at 37%, and Democrats need 24 seats to flip the House. 2018 is not likely to be kind to Republicans.
The liberal consensus that Republicans are going to lose Congress will, just like their predictions about Trump in 2016, turn out to be deeply mistaken, holds Guy Short of Fox News. The GOP raised a far bigger treasure chest to finance its midterm campaign in 2017, $130 million, more than double of what Democrats raised. Meanwhile, the DNC is bogged down by huge amounts of debt due to years of poor management. Republicans tend to have a higher turnout at midterm elections, and three-quarters of Republicans approve of Trump. Finally, Republican achievements on taxes, the economy and ISIS will win them the votes they need.