Given the current political climate in the US, it is likely that Trump will win re-election in 2020, reports Doug Sosnik in the Independent. While winning a two-person race could be complicated for him, the division of progressives indicates a strong independent candidate will rise. This movement would split votes for any Trump adversary while his own supporters stay loyal. In fact, their dedication to him goes beyond politics, but into identity and ideology. Believing he stands for them and will shake up DC means any slip-up is ignored. Unless these factors are shaken up before 2020, Trump is most probably going to be re-elected.
As impressive as their loyalty is, Trump supporters are overrated in terms of their political importance. Voters in the middle really decide elections, infers Matthew Yglesias of Vox. Trump won 2016 because his opponents were divided and their followers stayed home on voting day. As it stands, his election victory is unlikely to be repeated, given that he has made no effort to reach out to moderate voters. Divisive and loyal to his base, the president isn’t making new fans outside of it. Furthermore his supporters’ ‘undying’ devotion is exaggerated, all incoming presidents kept most of their fans. It will take a lot more than that for him to win in 2020.